Financial forecast for 2023: What will happen to the ruble, real estate and stocks?

And how to behave correctly in order to both save and multiply money.

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It would seem that it is nonsense to make any plans for life in today’s conditions. But there is no other way. In the government and in business they budget for the year, and even plan investments. So, we also need to put our modest dreams into specific monetary frameworks. Then it will be easier and clearer to move towards them. In this article I will try to give the main financial forecasts and outline the optimal algorithm of actions for this year.

Even in the quiet years few people were able to give a long-term forecast on the exchange rate. And now there are no such experts at all. But general trends can be identified. And conclusions can be drawn from them. At the end of last year there was an anxious mood in the market. Over the summer and autumn we got used to a strong ruble. The exchange rate had been hovering around 60 rubles to the dollar for a long time. And then suddenly it began to weaken. And then all of a sudden it began to weaken.

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Pseudo-experts suddenly woke up and began to make nightmares and predictions that the exchange rate would return to 100 rubles per dollar in such circumstances. But this did not happen. The first trading days of the year on the Moscow Stock Exchange showed that there was no good reason to panic. The ruble began to win back the losses.

Nevertheless, in general the situation with the rate of our currency is mixed. On the one hand, there are obvious factors in favor of ruble weakening. Export of oil and gas is declining, as well as their prices. This means that exporters will sell fewer dollars on the stock exchange. And the rate must go down. Especially since importers also increase the supply from abroad. And the budget would benefit if the ruble falls in price. The lower the rate, the more money can be received by exchanging the decreasing volume of incoming dollars for the rubles needed to pay for social spending.

On the other hand, too sharp weakening of our currency is not beneficial to the economy as a whole. Then import prices will rise sharply, and all this will be reflected in inflation. Supplies from abroad take a decent share of our expenditures. And if prices rise, then the government has to raise the key rate (and this is reflected in the cost of credit) and index social benefits.

In general, this system of checks and balances will not let the ruble fall too much. Just as it did not allow it to strengthen too much this summer. Of course, we saw the dollar exchange rate of 51 rubles in July. But it did not last long. Most experts say that this year the exchange rate will fluctuate in a wide range (from 70 to 90 rubles per dollar). A jump over a hundred is also possible. But even if it happens, it will be short-lived.

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